Roster Deep Dive - Vol. 3
D.C. United
Building and maintaining an MLS roster is complex. Success is difficult to measure, but analyzing past and current roster builds provides teams with a chance to use hindsight and recognize patterns. Applying the MLS’ roster rules to each club’s resources and playing style requires strong analytical skills. At first blush, to the untrained eye, it would appear that all MLS clubs are operating on a level playing field with respect to resources; however, not all resources are applied equally. As in any sports league, on field success may come at a steep cost, and cost consciousness may lead to poor on field results. Managing an MLS salary budget is a delicate balance that requires knowledge of the game and a deep understanding of the MLS roster rules. On that note, let’s dive into the current roster composition of the Black and Red.1
Current Landscape
To level-set, as of the time of writing, D.C. United’s roster consists of the following: (i) 18 senior players; (ii) 9 international players; (iii) 2 designated players; and (iv) 0 Under 22 initiative players.
Designated Players
After the departure of Paul Arriola, D.C.’s roster currently includes 2 designated players: Edison Flores and the incoming Taxiarchis Fountas.
TAM Eligible Players
According to last year’s MLSPA data, Julian Gressel is likely to fall within the TAM-eligible range for the 2022 league year. Additionally, based on the size of Michael Estrada’s option to purchase (an estimated $5,000,000), it is probable that Estrada’s budget charge for the 2022 league year falls within the TAM-eligible range.
U22 Initiative
United does not currently have any senior players designated as U22 Initiative players.
Recent Transactions
The record-setting trade that saw Paul Arriola move to FC Dallas is the headline transaction for the current transfer window. Not much needs to be said here; 2 million in GAM is a large fee, even after considering the MLS to USD exchange rate.
The sale of Kevin Paredes to Wolfsburg for $7.35 million was great for all parties: Kevin Paredes, D.C. United, MLS and Wolfsburg. The sale will allow D.C. to (i) re-invest in the current squad, (ii) develop the next Kevin Paredes and/or (iii) fund the club’s new training facility.
Note: the $1.05 million provided in connection with the Kevin Paredes transfer in the image below represents the amount of the transfer fee that D.C. can apply to their GAM balance.
Allocation Money Remaining
Given the transactions referenced above, before applying any GAM or TAM to reduce salary budget charges, D.C. United’s approximate GAM and TAM balances are likely close to the below figures.
Correct, the GAM Used category is net positive because of the influx of allocation money from the Arriola and Paredes transactions. The distribution (or allocation) of the allocation money will be a big factor for the Black and Red. They will likely have a few opportunities to get things right for the 2022 season and beyond.
Gaps to Fill
While Brad Smith has been brought in to backfill Kevin Paredes at left-back, if you look closely at the pitch view of the D.C. roster, a gap can be observed.
Zooming in may help.
With the opening in mind, surely the backroom staff is analyzing potential options to backfill Paul Arriola. See below for a few players that are currently playing within the MLS and one aspirational pick from the Championship in England.
Johnny Russell, 31, Sporting Kansas City
Johnny Russell is a known quantity in the MLS. Surely, SKC would not let him go for cheap, but D.C. has a good amount of allocation money to put to work. While Johnny Russell would likely set D.C. United back quite a bit, Russell is a sure thing in the MLS. However, at 31, it is questionable as to how many more years Russell can contribute consistently.
Salary Implications: According to last year’s MLSPA data, Russell’s base salary was $1.6 million. Additionally, with almost two full years left on his current deal, SKC would likely be in no hurry to let one of their best players go for cheap. As noted in the “Allocation Money Remaining” section above, D.C. has the resources, but, unfortunately, SKC also knows D.C. has the resources.
Jader Obrian, International, 26, FC Dallas
Based on his first season in the MLS, Obrian appears to be durable. With 9 goals and 4 assists from 34 appearances, Obrian was a bright spot for FCD in 2021. Obrian may be a bit of a gamble given his lack of tenure in the MLS, but, given the consistency he showed for FCD, it may be worth any potential risk for D.C. United.
Salary Implications: According to last year’s MLSPA data, Obrian’s base salary was $360,000. Similar to Russell, with almost two full years left on his current deal, FCD is likely not willing to let Obrian go without a firm negotiation. Assuming a reasonable trade fee (600,000 to 800,000 in GAM), D.C. United could easily slot Obrian’s budget charge into their current roster (although they may have to offload an international slot).
Dairon Asprilla, 29, Portland Timbers
Asprilla is coming off of a banner year. Proving his durability, Asprilla appeared in 41 matches across all competitions in 2021. From the right wing, Asprilla contributed 10 goals (including this banger) and 3 assists in 2021. Given that he has only played for Portland in the MLS, it would be interesting to see how Asprilla would adapt to life away from Providence Park.
Salary Implications: According to last year’s MLSPA data, Obrian’s base salary was $275,000. It is unclear when Asprilla’s contract ends, but, given that Portland exercised an option on him at the end of the 2020 season, it is unlikely that Asprilla is on a long-term deal. Assuming Portland was willing to deal, D.C. would surely be able to pull this transaction off for a reasonable trade fee (500,000 to 700,000 in GAM), well within their current reach.
Jed Wallace, International, 27, Millwall (Contract Ending June 30, 2022)
This is an aspirational pick. While the teams rumored to be in the running for securing Jed Wallace’s signature include Leeds United, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Watford and Middlesbrough, an in-prime Jed Wallace would be a huge pick up for D.C. United, and the MLS as a whole. Given that Wallace’s current contract ends on June 30th, no transfer fee would be required to bring in the coveted right winger. Oddly enough, Wallace would be roughly the same age as Johnny Russell when he joined SKC from Derby County. From a practical perspective, it may be difficult for D.C. to bring in 2 impact players in the middle of the season (Wallace, in addition to Taxiarchis Fountas), any adjustment period would surely be worth it if the gamble pays off. While it may take some convincing for Wallace to make the jump to MLS, why not go for it?
Salary Implications: With no transfer fee required, D.C. could afford to give Wallace a raise (based on his estimated current salary at Millwall). Assuming Wallace currently earns roughly $832,000 per year, his potential MLS salary would clearly be above the maximum budget charge, but D.C. could afford to increase his current salary and be well within their limits (while offloading an international slot along the way).
Next Steps
Hernan Losada will be hoping to hit the ground running in the District. Flush with allocation money, Losada will have the resources necessary to add any desired players to the roster. Early signs indicate that Losada prefers a 3-4-3; a quality right-winger is almost certainly on the minds of the D.C. United coaching staff, who will be aiming to make the playoffs in their first season in charge.
Note: This Roster Deep Dive incorporates (i) assumptions related to (a) TAM and GAM amounts applied; and (b) previous TAM and GAM amounts applied to the current year’s 2022 budget; (ii) salary data from the MLSPA’s annual release of player salary data; and (iii) publicly available information and estimates related to transfer fees. Screenshots generated using Counterfor.io.